|
FINANCIAL TIMES
24-10-18
America’s allies must master the art of dealing with Donald
Trump JANAN GANESH
A lifetime on and in front of the television, that hurried medium,
trained Donald Trump in the art of the compressed jibe. Next to “low
energy” and “little Marco”, however, “lyin’ Ted” was a dud. It took
supplemental strikes on Ted Cruz’s wife and father to sting the Texas
senator, who called Mr Trump a “snivelling coward” in 2016.
On Monday, Mr Trump campaigned for Mr Cruz in Houston. There have been
similar reconciliations with senators Rand Paul, who once called the
president an “orange-faced windbag”, and Lindsey Graham, who, with
Beckettian economy, went with “jackass”.
At this point, the done thing is to regret the moral capitulation of
these one-time resisters. Less examined is the other side of the
rapprochement. How easily Mr Trump comes to an understanding. For
enemies, the price of re-admittance to his fold is the odd dose of
flattery and votes for things they would have voted for anyway. Because
he looks and talks like an immovable man, we miss evidence to the
contrary.
The lesson here is not for Washington’s careerists. It is for allied
nations. After they steadied gingerly from the savage shock of his
election, countries were left with a practical question: how to manage
this strange phase in relations with the US? How, at a stretch, to gain
from it? Some, such as Germany, went into unofficial opposition. Others
(Britain more than most) tried too hard to please him.
Neither has it right. Mr Trump can be worked with, or at least
neutralised. And it can be done without total self-abasement. The
president is not a driver of particularly hard bargains. He can live
with symbolic gestures of concession: what some have called “tweetable
wins”.
A minor renegotiation was enough to settle his decades-old grievance
with Nafta. It also softened his more recent feud with Canada. Last
year, he described Nato as “no longer obsolete” after assurances from
Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary-general, about its work against
terrorism. He was further defanged in his hostility to the alliance by a
round of European military spending that mostly predates his presidency.
As recently as April, he seemed (for a while) open to re-joining the
Trans-Pacific Partnership on revised terms.
There is Trumpism as analysis: the US as gull, bearing burdens as
liberty-taking foreigners giggle behind their hands. And there is
Trumpism as action: small tweaks to the status quo, usually entailing a
cosmetic financial sop to Washington. Perhaps he never believed the
analysis in the first place. Perhaps he does not understand the
smallness of the changes.
More plausible than either Mr Trump-as-fake or Mr Trump-as-fool is Mr
Trump-as-politician. With re-election two years away, he wants
diplomatic successes to parade. To that end, he plays up whatever he
negotiates, intuiting that his voters crave the righteous momentum of
America First as much as its precise detail.
Saudi Arabia supplies the most topical example of his susceptibility to
economic gestures. Washington has reasons to preserve its alliance with
the kingdom even after the alleged murder of dissident Jamal Khashoggi.
But Mr Trump, who could mention Saudi counter-terror intelligence or
usefulness against Iran, zeroes in on bilateral arms sales. Even if he
is right to rate them at $110bn over time, they amount to a rounding
error in the near-$20tn US economy. In other words, a veneer of
munificence — “memorandums of intent” to buy American kit — has saved
the Saudis from what might have been a breakdown of relations under
another president.
The point is not to gloat at Mr Trump’s quickness to accommodate. (Would
we rather that he was as stubborn as his image?) The point is to flag
its usefulness to allies. He will lead the foremost power on Earth for
two, perhaps six more years. Countries must find a modus vivendi with
him. His pattern of behaviour implies that he is negotiable on much, and
at affordable cost.
Although diplomats often resent mercantile foreign policy as a
vulgarisation of their rarefied craft. But it has the blessing of
clarity. There is no mistaking what a nation with such a policy wants.
What Mr Trump seems to want is a sense of restitution for monies diddled
out of American coffers through such black magic as trade and collective
security. Not always the substance: the sense. Knowing this, canny
allies have somewhat stabilised relations with him through
less-than-ruinous concessions, and let him have his day on Twitter. He
means it when he calls himself a dealmaker. The mistake is to assume
that he is a tough one. |