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WALL STREET
JOURNAL
Vietnam’s Prime Minister Likely Won’t Have a Job in New Government Current secretary-general is staying on in that role, freezing out potential rise of Nguyen Tan Dung, who faces term limit as premier James Hookway
Vietnam’s prime minister appears to have maneuvered several protégés into key leadership roles as the country’s Communist Party prepares to select a new team to run the quickly growing country, but the reform-minded Nguyen Tan Dung himself looks set to be out of a job. The party’s conservative secretary-general will continue in his post for at least two years, people familiar with the situation said Thursday, freezing out Mr. Dung, who had been believed to be seeking the role of party chief as term limits end his time as prime minister. The incumbent, General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, leads a more conservative power block which takes a more cautious approach to key issues, including market reforms and resisting China’s growing influence in the disputed waters of the South China Sea. Neither Mr. Dung nor Mr. Trong could be reached for comment. The official Vietnam News Agency reported only that a consensus had been reached at a high-level party plenum meeting before the candidates are forwarded for consideration at the party’s weeklong congress, which begins Jan. 20. The congress, which meets every five years to chart the Communist Party’s long-term plans, could still change the lineup of leaders selected to steer one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies over the next five years, but that would be considered a rarity. Experts on Vietnam said there will be little upheaval in the country’s policy direction despite Mr. Trong’s role as the heavyweight player in a triumvirate that is expected to include Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc as the new premier and Public Security Minister Tran Dai Quang as the country’s state president. Analysts say both newcomers are perceived to be close associates of Mr. Dung. “The current trajectory will not change, but the pace of reform will be slower and carry less substance,” said Le Hong Hiep at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies –Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. “Mr. Dung is more reformist and action oriented. He is not constrained by ideological considerations, he is a practical leader.” Among other things, Mr. Dung, now 66 years old, led Vietnam into both the World Trade Organization and the U.S.-led Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact. He also steered Vietnam into a stronger and sometimes surprising military and diplomatic relationship with the U.S. as part his efforts to counter China’s claims to the resource-rich, strategic waters of the South China Sea. The party admonished Mr. Dung in 2012 for his handling of the economy, when growth slumped and inflation soared. But he quickly recovered and batted off a leadership challenge, in part because of a strongly nationalist stance over what Vietnam perceived as Chinese incursions into its territorial waters in 2014. Still, some observers such as Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington, say that the 71-year-old Mr. Trong, once guardian of the party’s ideological purity, has evolved in recent years. He has endorsed Vietnam’s membership of the U.S.-led TPP trade deal and told The Wall Street Journal in written remarks last July that he hoped that America’s diplomatic and military pivot to Asia would continue. Vietnam’s former foe, he said, was a force for stability in the region.
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